Betting strategy: How to find value bets

Betting strategy: How to find value bets


Welcome to bettingexpert. In today’s
video we’re going to talk about value bets and how to find them in order to
take your betting to the next level. So first of all what is a value bet? Well
essentially it’s a bet where the outcome is more likely to happen than what the
odds of the bookmaker are implying, so here we’re going to be talking about
implied probability as well so I’m going to try and break it down to be as simple
as possible so stick with me there are detailed guides on bettingexpert if you
want to go and read up more like data and data formulas but let’s just show
you a quick example of what I mean by a value bet. So let’s take a really simple
example of flipping a coin so we know that it’s 50% chance for heads or tails
to be the outcome of that flip. Now let’s say there’s a bookmaker offering
odds on that event and one bookmaker is being quite generous and offering odds
of 2.10 on it to be heads now we know that the
percentage chance of heads is 50% but those odds from the bookmaker of 2.10
actually imply a probability of 47% so the probability from the bookmakers
point of view is lower than the actual probability which we know so it’s
actually a value bet for us to bet on that 2.10
every single time now you are going to be very hard pressed to find a bookmaker
that is that generous when it comes to offering value quite like that but
hopefully that gives you the right idea when it comes to understanding
probabilities and comparing it to the odds on offer now I do have some key
points to also keep in mind when it comes to picking value bets so here they
are… The first one is to specialize. If you can specialize on a particular
sport or even a particular league or competition the narrower you can get the
more information you can receive and digest on in particular sports then the
better you’ll be at spotting value in market so for example Stephen Harris, our horse racing expert is very rarely found betting on football
and the same goes for our World Champion Tipster Ninca90. He favours basketball over
any other sport. “Basketball became my favorite sport I started to practice
basketball and I started with NBA League but last five six years so I’m watching
also EuroLeague and regional basketball” So the more of an expert you can become on a singular event the better when it
comes to finding value bets. Our second key to finding value bets and exploiting
them is to actually understand probabilities now we did cover that
briefly in the example of the coin flip where we actually look at the implied
probabilities from the bookmaker but the more you can understand those comparing
them to your own probabilities and own assessments of a match the better.
The third key is to actually go and set your own odds now this is a great
exercise you can do in order to understand how odds are compiled and
basically use your own probabilities and assessment of a match and come up with
some betting odds of your own you can then compare them to the actual market
and if your odds are better then there’s potentially value there to be had. Now
the fourth key is to continuously review your results so if you do that exercise
of setting your odds over the long term let’s say try a month to begin with
and see how your results have compared when you compare them to the bookmakers
and then how your bets have done as well that’s better the more you can review
and the more you can learn the better you’ll be in future and the last key we
have for you is to persevere when it comes to value bets they’re not always
easy to find and they could also lose as well them we’re not saying they’re
guaranteed to win but the more chances you have being the right side of the
probabilities the better so keep at it like any other skill it’s going to take
a long time to master. Our Tipster of the year and our horse racing experts
have spent years diving into the numbers and refining their strategies when it
comes to betting so we’re not gonna say it’s gonna happen overnight but it’s
well worth doing so if you want to profit in the long term on betting. Now, a
bonus tip for you as well if all of this sounds like something you can actually
achieve but you don’t yet want to risk your hard earned money well you can join bettingexpert for free and start posting your tips and basically what we
do is reward the most profitable tipsters every month with cash prizes
and we have our World Tipster Championship where the winner will take
home €10,000 just like Ninca90 has done the last two years running but ultimately we want you to
have fun with betting so please as always gamble responsibly
I’ve been Joe for bettingexpert and thanks a lot for watching